A Longer Term Perspective on Today’s Markets

Another week, another 1% climb in the S&P 500…bond yields coming back in slightly…commodities starting to move a bit more sideways…Dollar pulling back. Ho hum. For this week, with the short term macro picture not giving us much to get excited about, we will step back to take a longer term view and consider where these markets might be heading…

Please visit me at Seeking Alpha on Monday to read what I hope will be a timely and helpful analysis of the financial markets from a long term trend perspective.

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3 thoughts on “A Longer Term Perspective on Today’s Markets

  1. Thank you for this week’s update, which I was waiting for. As I discussed earlier, the S&P had a Rising Wedge on all 3 time frames: daily, weekly and monthly. Yesterday, price fell out of the daily RW and today it is threatening to break the weekly RW.

    IMO, there was little warning of this selling. But I would like to mention a trend, that I discussed with a friend.

    From March 2009 to June 2009 selling was 3 months. Then June 2009 to January 2010 is 7 months. January 2010 to April 2010 is 3 months. April 2010 to November 2010 is 7 months.

    Now November 2010 to February 2011 is 3 months.

    Those are the patterns for the selling pullbacks, which I find interesting.

    But the end of QE2 is scheduled to June. Is it June 30? That would break the pattern, perhaps, making it only 5 months: February to July. But actually in time, it would be 4 months: February 22 to July, perhaps 1st.

    I am replying here because seekingalpha has many replies, in addition, mine is technical.

    Aloha,
    Shirley

  2. Thank you Shirley for sharing this interesting observation. I must admit to not having paid enough attention to time factor in my analysis, in spite of having read Robert Fischer’s fascinating work on the application of Fibonacci expansion to the time element. This is something I have intended to study but haven’t gotten to yet.

    If this pattern holds, it would be quite remarkable; as for the end of QE as non-fitting type of “trigger” event, perhaps it would be a different event that actually moves markets. The reasoning here could be that factors which are widely anticipated and/or less uncertain would tend to be more fully discounted ahead of the fact.

    In any case I am fuzzy on this; as a data driven analyst my mind is searching for a rationale here. However I will be watching this pattern now that you have mentioned it, and it will be interesting to see how it develops.

    Best Regards
    Harry

    • Hello Harry,

      I am glad that I could share with you. This is what I do on a personal level with my investor friends. By doing so, we increase our investing knowledge exponentially.

      My Sociology degree, with social science background, makes me view life from a different perspective, it seems.

      And again, I appreciate your blog and column on seekingalpha.

      Aloha,
      Shirley

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