To Readers: a New Direction

First, I’d like to thank my readers for their interest and occasional encouragement. It has been very rewarding as well as demanding to maintain this blog. After nearly a year of regular activity, it is time to re-visit the reasons for writing and making this material public. In most respects it has met my initial aims, but in one respect it has not: the exchange of ideas I hoped would be found in the comment section.

For some time copies of most of my posts, in particular the weekly market outlook, have been reproduced pretty much identically at Seeking Alpha. Given the wider reading audience found there, it has been in important ways more successful than my own blog here at WordPress. For this reason I am making a change in direction. From this point I will be publishing all specifically market related material there. This blog will contain supplementary market commentary, as well as some non market specific economic material.

It is my hope that readers will find this material valuable, as well as visiting me at Seeking Alpha. As always, your comments are welcomed. Thank you again for your interest.


2 thoughts on “To Readers: a New Direction

  1. Hello Harry,

    My apologies for never commenting on your blog. Only recently I have learned about your columns, beginning to follow you. I will now follow you and comment on seekingalpha, which I read every day.

    I understand your concern about not receiving feedback. I experienced the same frustration. For that reason, I stopped posting on minyanville and other forums.

    I didn’t know that feedback was important to you. My apologies for that.

    And I want to state that your humility, acknowledging an analytical misjudgment, is encouraging. I have learned the very hard way (by losing money) that accepting errors is important in stock trading.

    It is extremely difficult to discern stock market direction ahead of time. I have been trying for about 2 years. I do find it easier to discern intraday direction. Why the difference, I do not know.

    Thanks for writing this blog. I will now read what you posted on seekingalpha.

    Aloha from Hawaii,

  2. Thank you Shirley for your kind words. Please don’t feel like you need to apologize for the lack of feedback. It was a bit presumptuous of me to think that this fledgling blog, out of so many on the web, would spark much discussion.

    One thing about presenting ideas at a site like SA is that you do get feedback, both the helpful variety (“I disagree with your position, and here’s why…) and the unhelpful (“you are foolish to think X”). I value being challenged, and am not in this game to gratify my ego, I’m in it to make money.

    A note on being wrong and admitting it: like you I learned the hard way that you have to recognize errors and cut them immediately; that way you can be right on your position calls only half the time (essentially at random) and still grow your portfolio by limiting losses and giving winners room to run.

    As traders we are really in the probability business, so if through analysis we can get 60% or more of our calls correct, and practice sound money management as just described, we should be able to enjoy good success over the long term.

    All the best

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